Image by Keith Allison via Flickr
I’m no expert on anything, and like everyone I’m a genius in hindsight. But I’ll take any bet on the Finals this year (with Vegas odds) and go with the Magic. (Vegas Insider says “The Lakers come into the Finals as a -250 favorite to win the series (Bet $250 to win $100), while the Magic are +200 to win their first title (Bet $100 to win $200).”
I’ll keep my reasoning simple: People always talk about this or that as they key component to championships. It used to be a big time center, but since there are so few so good centers and also because of rule changes in how you guard on the perimeter, some say you start your team with a point guard.
I read an article (maybe John Hollinger on ESPN?) a few months ago though that suggests, in actuality, what NBA Champions all of have in common is a superior post defender.
Let’s review the last twenty years of champions from http://www.nba.com/history/finals/champions.html
- 1988-1989 Detroit Pistons:
- Dennis Rodman was Defense Player of the Year twice with the Pistons, 8 times on the All-Defensive Team
- 1990-1992 Chicago Bulls
- Horace Grant was Second Team All-Defensive four times. Of course Jordan and Pippen were supreme defenders, and Bill Cartwright was a big key for them defensively at Center as well.
- 1993-1994 Houston Rockets
- Hakeem
- 1995-1997 Chicago Bulls
- Dennis Rodman
- 1998 San Antonio Spurs
- Tim Duncan, David Robinson
- 1999-2001 Los Angeles Lakers
- Shaq (remember, he is a 3 Time All Defensive Team guy)
- 2002 San Antonio Spurs
- Tim Duncan, David Robinson
- 2003 Detroit Pistons
- Ben Wallace
- 2004 San Antonio Spurs
- Tim Duncan
- 2005 Miami Heat
- Shaq and Alonzo Mourning
- 2006 San Antonio Spurs
- Tim Duncan
- 2007 Boston Celtics
- Kevin Garnett
- 2008: Orlando Magic!!!!!!!
Every single one of these teams had a supreme post defender, at least an All-NBA second team post defender, with most of the teams having a first team All Defensive and even Defensive Player of the Year. In fact, only the Lakers and the Horace Grant Bulls did not feature a first team All Defensive post defender.
Introducing, then, Dwight Howard. 2008-2009 NBA Defensive Player of the Year.
The Lakers have Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum, but I’ve never heard them described as superior post defenders (certainly not All Defensive Team), even if their rebounding and shot blocking numbers look good.I read another article earlier this year (probably ESPN) that even Tex Winter, the Lakers’ assistant coach, believes the Lakers are overrated on defense- they can be good but are actually inconsistent.I heard an announcer mention this in the Nuggets series as well.
So, simple logic. Anyone out there want to take the bet?
Lakers in 6. Phil and Kobe wont let this team lose!
No way, Dwight Howard all the way!
Magic Down 2!!!!! WHOOO HOOOOOO!!!!
Haha, wish I could watch more of the game. Only saw a few minutes in the 4th before I had to go to work.
Your ORLANDO team will need a miracle now. Dwight is just not a very polished center yet… He’ll get his as he is only 23, but not against my LAKERS.. haha
Yeah, it looks like the Magic will be done for, but they did have their chances. Maybe they can push to 7? I guess the strong post defender rule for NBA Champions will be broken.
You tend to forget that the Lakers have a nice strong lineup of bigs. Gasol, Odom, and Bynum. They basically neutralize the “POST” defender theory.
Gasol and Odom are both very versatile and tough to guard. Bynum is the only true post player but with Dwight having to defend and post on multiple bigs with that much ability, its just tough.
The did have their chances. Missed Ally Oop followed by Dwights missed FT’s.
Well the theory (I guess, it’s not a theory, it’s more like analysis) from the article was that it wasn’t just having bigs, but a really strong post defender among them. And that’s when you look at the history, it really shows that (100%), going at least the last twenty years. Of course, if the Lakers make it out, that doesn’t debunk the analysis, just that the Lakers were able to do it despite not having the superior post defender presence. I don’t know if you disagree, but I’ve never heard Odom, Gasol, or Bynum called excellent post defenders. A lot of analysts believe that you need good big men, but I think looking at it from a post defense point of view really helps you understand what is really needed. Makes me think of the early decade Kings with Webber and Divac and Brad Miller, and then the Nash Suns with Amare. Both were great teams with excellent big men, but all those big men were not superior post defenders.
Obviously, it’s a not a rule or requirement, but more of a thought of what really wins in the playoffs.
New Theory: All you need is Kobe Bryant.
Congrats. As it is every year, the highlight of my Warriors NBA season will be hoping, anticipating, then getting nothing during the NBA Draft. Nothing would make me happier than seeing the team get blown up.
This is impressive:
Pau Gasol, however, is series MVP 1a. Not only was he extraordinarily efficient with the ball all series, but he also evolved to be nearly masterful on defense. For much of the decisive Game 5 the Magic simply couldn’t finish around or over him — even as he single-covered Dwight Howard much of the night. ESPN Stats and Information charted Gasol single-covering Howard on 38 possessions — and Howard did not score from the field on any of them.
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-41-86/Nine-Things-to-Remember-About-the-2009-NBA-Finals.html
One could easily argue that. Kobe averaged 33 points, 8 assists, and 6 rebounds in the finals. Only one other has ever done it. You guessed it, Michael Jordan.
This is just continuing the conversation, from Bill Simmons’ article “Did Kobe Bryant change as a player/person/leader/performer from 2008 to 2009, or did his circumstances change?”
“2008 Kobe (21 games): 30.1 pts, 5.7 reb, 5.6 ast, 3.3 TO, 22.0 FGA, 9.2 FTA, 47.9 FG%, 81 FT%, 30 3FG%, 41.1 MPG.
2009 Kobe (23 games): 30.2 pts, 5.3 reb, 5.5 ast, 2.6 TO, 23.0 FGA, 8.6 FTA, 45.7 FG%, 88 FT%, 35 3FG%, 40.9 MPG.”
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/090616&sportCat=nba
For me, I assume he was just as good this year as last, Boston was just better last year.
Boston defensively was much better than Orlando in the finals. They had no answer to Paul Pierce.
If the Lakers would have won that title, Kobe would have easily been MVP.
Im just glad Boston’s window of opportunity is almost shut. haha. The Lakers are prime for a nice run at the title for at least 4-5 more seasons.