Image by Sail Whitestone via Flickr
Continuing from my previous thoughts on the draft, nothing much happened except for the Rubio craziness in Minnesota. I think it would have been a great draft for them if they had picked up Curry to play with Rubio, but now everyone is waiting to see whatâs going to happen.
Somehow, though, the Warriors lucked out and got Stephen Curry. I wasnât so into him for a long time, never even watched any footage, but now, I am SOLD. I still would like Rubio- Iâd trade Ellis straight up for Rubio and some garbage to make the money work out and play them both together, but I have never heard the Warriors having any interest of him. As for Monta, Iâm just down on him. My feeling is he is what Hai would call a âloserâ. Thatâs a guy who will have great stats and look fantastic on paper and on video, but doesnât really win games. That could be because of stuff that doesnât show up in the stats, such as poor defense, ball hogging, being a poor teammate, etc. He classified Jason Richardson as one, and I have to agree, even though I LOVE JRich. These are the guys who could have the stats of a #1 star, but you cannot win with them as your best player, they probably have to be your 3rd best player.
And thatâs how I feel about Monta right now. If you look at his DraftExpress scouting report back from his high school days, it could easily apply today:
He’s a 6-3 SG with absolutely no PG skills whatsoever. That will limit his potential to contribute minutes initially unless he ends up on a horrible team. In the long term, though, he might not have the instincts or mentality to even become sufficient in this area. When he does try, his passing skills are average to below average. He forces the issue constantly, freezing out his teammates and showing absolutely no interest in getting anyone else involved. Although he is very young, his basketball IQ appears to be limited at this point, running into brick walls time after time while his teammates wave their hands and shake their heads in disgust. He does not appear to be interested in making an assist unless it’s of the Sportscenter top 10 variety. He will often bring the ball up the court and immediately jack up a shot, before even looking in the direction of his teammates. The concept of running set plays is completely foreign to him, not being capable of doing anything in a half-court offense at this point except create his own shot off the dribble or drive and dish after drawing a crowd. He looks disinterested in what’s happening around him unless the ball is in his hands, as his off the ball movement is extremely poor.
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Although most scouts I’ve talked to about high school basketball prospects don’t really seem to care about this, his defense is horrendous. Ellis puts absolutely no effort into playing on this side of the ball, and just doesn’t seem to understand the importance of stopping his man. He gambles on steals (he can be very quick to get out in the passing lanes), gets lost on rotations, gives up on plays completely once he gets beat, gets torched on the perimeter in man to man defense and refuses to rotate or play any type of off the ball defense. He did show some glimpses of potential in the all-star games when his back was against the ball and he had to perform well to have any shot at being able to declare for the draft, but nothing when he had the choice. He’s got all the tools to be an excellent defender if he puts his mind to it, but he has to put his mind to it first.
His intangibles are also somewhat questionable. Ellis has consistently shown a poor attitude and immaturity, pouting when things don’t go his way or when the ball isn’t in his hands for more than 5 seconds. He refused to shake anyone’s hand at the end of the McDonalds game, because he was mad at his coach for not giving him more minutes at the PG spot (see links). His body language on the court looks very poor at times, while his quotes in the media make him look like an extremely cocky and arrogant young man. If he’s already so full of himself at this point, when basically no one outside of NBA draft circles and Mississippi State fans knows his name, what’s he going to be like in 5 years?
Those were his weaknesses logged in 2005. In 2009, can we say anything has changed? Monta is a super exciting player, and heâs still young, but what I wonder most about him if he will ever want to go after it defensively and if he really cares about winning in terms of the effort you donât see shown in stats. Heâs already been complaining and itâs rumored he demanded a trade at seasonâs end and will want a trade if heâs not the starting PG. Maybe they can get him to relax and quiet down, but how long will that last?
But back to Curry and more optimism. The highlights below are fantastic. The main thing about what I see from him is that even though you hear complaints about his size and athleticism, he attacks relentlessly, even for dunks in traffic, driving, shooting. Some people donât feel heâs a true point, but for the opinions I respect (DraftExpress, Bill Simmons, Dick Vitale, Don Nelson), they all believe he is a true point, so I believe as well.
And then we have the Amare the Warriors trade rumor.
Amare for :
- Andris Biedrins
- Brandan Wright
- Marco Belinelli
- (maybe Stephen Curry)
- (maybe Kelenna Azuibuike)
Two things that seem to be holding up the trade: 1) including Curry 2) signing Amare long term.
For me, 2), not as important. Sure, he can bail after one year, but I have my doubts about Amare (he may not be that much different from Monta), and if he bails, well at least you have a ton of money free for the cap. I like Andris, but the Warriors would suck with or without him, so I donât mind taking the big risk and blowing things up.
1) Here, Iâm not flexible. Donât give up Curry. Giving up Kelenna is fine. I would even throw in a future lottery protected #1 if Amare signs long term. If the Suns refuse, The Warriors need to find a way to deal with their glut in guards, but that comes later.
Hereâs what the Warriors would look like ideally if this trade went through:
PG: Stephen Curry
SG: Monta Ellis
SF: Stephen Jackson
PF: Anthony Randolph
C: Amare Stoudemire
Bench: Maggette, Turiaf, Morrow, Watson
Maybe Turiaf starts at C to protect Amare and play D, while Randolph comes off the bench and plays extensive minutes. Either way, Turiaf would get a chance to play 30 minutes a game. Without Andris, a weak rebounding teams becomes weaker, unless Amare suddenly decides to become Barkley, but Randolph showed some energy late last year and potential as a double digit rebound guy. You really only have two defenders on the whole team in Jackson and Turiaf, but hopefully Curry will at least work hard, Randolph will continue to show the effort in rebounding and defending he did last year, and the team overall can hustle and create havoc in the passing lanes, and block a lot of shots (Amare, Randolph, and Turiaf could each potentially block close to 2 a game). Jackson is good in a point forward role to help Curry, and hopefully, Ellis would improve his ball handling skills in terms of passing and creating for others. Maggette off the bench is fantastic; I have no doubt he could be a 6th man of the year. Morrow is a dead eye shooter who can out up 10 points efficiently in 15 minutes, and Watson is a legit backup PG. What they realistically would need is another defender, a versatile perimeter one like free agent Shawn Marion. Unfortunately, Marion hates Amare, and the Warriors donât have money, so thatâs a no, but basically looking for a guy who doesnât need the ball, can play D, finish or shoot open 3âs, and rebound.
And, I just noticed that Turiaf had a 2.3:1 Assist to Turnover ratio last year. Heâs a Center!
To celebrate the Amare potential, hereâs this classic matchup between Adonal Foyle and Amare a few years ago, in a game I actually went to.
Amare is a terrific offensive player, but I think he’s a huge liability on defense.