Draft | I Spit Hot Fire

NBA Draft Time! (Time for Warriors FAIL)

Friday, June 26th, 2009

It’s draft time!

(Yes, I scheduled this post to go up right before the draft)

I can accept the Warriors won’t find a way to get my new mancrush Ricky Rubio, so the only other person who I’m interested in is Terrence Williams. He’s athletic, can really pass (5 assists per game in college, most PGs can’t even do that), and can defend. He could be the next Iguodala (very similar skill set coming out of college) or maybe even Sprewell (people may say I’m crazy, but Sprewell was rated low in college) He can’t shoot or really score, but I think he can develop that, and when you’re on a Don Nelson team, if you can run, dunk, defend, and pass, you’ll be fine. The Warriors could use more passing and defense anyway even if its considered a reach to get him at #7. He played 4 years at a big basketball program (Louisville), so I think he can step in and contribute immediately.

And yeah, can he dunk……

In the last few drafts, here’s whom I wanted for the Warriors

2008: Kevin Love. Good!
2007: Don’t remember. Probably Yi or Corey Brewer. Oops.
2006: LaMarcus Aldridge and then Rudy Gay when I saw him slipping. Grizzlies got him so the Warriors ended up with Patrick O’Bryant. Enough said. 2006 was seriously a weak draft.

What the Warriors need to do this offseason:

Trade Jamal Crawford or Corey Maggette. Either would be pretty good as an offense only 6th man. Unfortunately, the Warriors have both, and they both make a ton of $. No way Crawford opts out.
Keep Brandan Wright. They can’t get good trade value out of him anyway, so might as well give him some more opportunities. He’s not like O’Bryant who was lazy and never could play, Wright’s been injured, but has shown promise.
Warriors just need to get rid of swingmen. They have plenty of good ones, and they’re probably going to draft another one anyway. So try to burn through Kelenna Azubuike and Marco Belinelli if you have to, even if I do like both of them. There’s just only so much playing time to be had. I would guess Kelenna has the most value of the Warriors guards, considering talent, potential, and current salary. Morrow is worth holding on to over Kelenna to see how far he can improve.
Here’s the list of shooting guards (including non-true points) and small forwards they have that are pretty decent and could probably play 20 minutes a game on a good team: Azubuike, Maggette, Crawford, Stephen Jackson, Anthony Morrow, Monta Ellis, Marco Belinelli and (maybe he’s a stretch at the moment). That’s 7 guys! You basically add two more guys, and that’s a normal NBA rotation. But out of all them, only Jackson defends, and none really can run the team. They need to find a way get rid of at least 2 of these guys (or maybe 3 if they draft another one)

Predictions! This is all just for fun, like I know anything.

The Warriors will disappoint me, and do none of the above
Blake Griffin will not be the best player to have come out of this draft
There will be no crazy draft deals, though I want there to be. Shake it up! [Edit: I wrote this before the Jefferson and Miller/Foye deals. I guess I was wrong, those were some decent deals]
At least 3 of the highly touted lottery PGs (Rubio, Brandon Jennings, Stephen Curry, JRue Holiday, Jonny Flynn, Tyreke Evans) will suck (never be starters on a decent team- Sebastian Telfair is an example) or not play that position (that only applies for Tyreke really).
When I think of Stephen Curry, I think of BJ Armstrong. That’s based on nothing other that ill informed perceptions though. DraftExpress really likes him, so I’d be willing to believe in him as a Warrior
Ty Lawson, the 7th of the 6 lottery PGs, will be a better player than at least two of the PGs who go in front of him
Updated busts, these are the lottery guys who I guarantee (again, means nothing, but I say it like it does) will be full time starters in the NBA fo r a decent team:
Jordan Hill - people think he should go to the Warriors. I don’t know if he’s any good, but I do know he’s an athletic rebounding power forward who can’t shoot, pass, rely on a good low post game, or play good defense. Yeah, he maybe has a better body than Anthony Randolph and Brandan Wright, but is he really any more talented?
Hasheem Thabeet – Hasheem will almost have to be a starter by default because he’s 7’3 and a Center, but will not live up to his top 3 draft ranking
DeMar DeRozan – people should stop using the Vince comparison.
Gerald Henderson – went to Duke. I’m just saying…..
3 of the PGs above

Tags: Basketball, bust, draft, mancrush, nba, predictions, ricky rubio, terrence williams, warriors

26.06.2009 Basketball 1 Comment

With the 7th Pick in the 2009 NBA Draft, The Warriors Select…

Saturday, June 6th, 2009

Ricky Rubio defendido por Maurice Whitefield d...

Image via Wikipedia

Ricky Rubio! (pictured)

Oh I wish.

Time to share my love of the NBA Draft again.

About 3 weeks left. The Warriors, as usual, are absolute trash, and as usual, did not get lucky and move up in the draft. They are also over the cap, have a coach who will bail anytime now, have a front office that is basically evil, and there is no hope for the fans.

So I am depressed.

But here’s a list of players I like, and to be balanced, players I simply don’t like, picking not just from the low ranked players, but also trying to predict busts from the top.

FTW! I mean, For the Warriors!

Legit:

Ricky Rubio, PG (ranked in the top 2): 18 year old PG. Can legitimately defend, has good size and is a true PG. I would temporarily forgive the Warriors for their sins if they moved up and got him. I would almost move back to the US and buy an 8 game ticket package- that’s how excited I’d be. Of course, Rubio’s agent, Dan Fegan, hates the Warriors front office, and the front office, him, so Warriors fans are again f*cked.
DeJuan Blair, PF PITT (top 15): He mauled Hasheem Thabeet head to head even though he’s about 8 inches shorter. He’s got a great wingspan and a motor. I really like guys who work it and bust ass.
Ty Lawson, PG UNC (top 20): a part of me wonders if he is like Greg Anthony- looks better than he is because of his great teammates (Anthony played with Stacey Augmon and Larry Johnson), but I think he will be much better than the spot he’s picked at. I really wonder why he’s rated so low, and I don’t buy the argument of size because other players (Flynn, Jennings) are small as well but ranked much higher. Lawson has improved every year, played great in UNC’s championship run, and is a good leader.

To me everyone else is a crap shoot, and I don’t really care who the Warriors pick if these guys aren’t it. What I really hope for is they blow up the team. When you’re crap, the worse case that can happen is you’re still crap. And the Warriors have been crap so long, as long as they don’t trade or sign 30 year olds, I say just risk it. Go get Chris Bosh for one year if that’s somehow possible. Everyone can go as far as I’m concerned, but especially Monta, Corey Maggette, and Jamal Crawford. I’d take Baron back, no hesitation, even if he is showing alarming signs of slowing down. And I hope that Randolph, Brandan Wright, and Macro Belinelli (he plays defense now), can be given starting roles to show what they can really do. I love Andris as well, but he can go if necessary.

Busts:

Hasheem Thabeet, C UCONN (ranked in the top 4): DraftExpress, which knows what it’s talking about, says this for Hasheem’s best case scenario: Samuel Dalembert. Also, I’ve learned my lesson from Emeka Okafor, another UCONN guy, and Okafor was much better in college than Thabeet was. I expect Okafor to be better than Thabeet in the pros as well. So I expect Thabeet to be something in the middle of Michael “Kandi Man” Olowokandi and Okafor. So, like DraftExpress said, Samuel Dalembert.
DeMar Derozan, SG USC (top 15): Everyone compares him to Vince Carter. Sounds great, but Vince actually lit it up and stayed at UNC for three years. He could also dribble. Derozan cannot. In fact, no one says anything much about him other than he can dunk like Vince. What I really want to ask is, what’s the difference between Derozan and James White? Other than the fact Derozan hangs out with Master P and Lil Romeo, and because he’s only played 1 year, people still think he has potential.

I guess talking about just 5 players isn’t a real commitment, but this year’s draft class is just so bad. People feel it’s a bad draft, and I could easily say I think guys like Tyreke Evans, Brandon Jennings, and Jonny Flynn won’t pan out, but I don’t have a strong feeling either way, so I’ll stop here. I’m not even sure I’m high on Blake Griffin (can he be THAT much better than Carlos Boozer?) or Jordan Hill, either. James Harden should be a solid pro-I don’t think people think he will be a superstar, but he surely won’t be trash. (If you look at his good combine numbers, though, it looks like he’s a much better athlete than he’s given credit for) Austin Daye, I think he definitely has bust on him, as does BJ Mullens, but I don’t want to talk about people outside of the top 10 so much – just too easy to say those guys could be busts. Just to clarify, most of these guys I haven’t even watched play, but just using what I’ve seen in years past in terms of projections vs reality and trying to understand what’s most likely to happen here.

So those are my thoughts for this year, but let’s do a quick review of what I said last year just to show how dumb I am. The Warriors picked the player (Anthony Randolph) I hated most but he ended up being considered one of the best in terms of talent. Really came on strong at the end of last year. My thoughts last year were:

My hopeful Warriors-to-be:

Kevin Love, 6?9 270 PF from UCLA

Love’s name is suggestive conditioning if you were to believe in Malcolm Gladwell. I haven’t seen him play, but to me, he’s a bruiser with skills. Won’t be a great athlete, but will work and isn’t afraid to kick some a**. Good passer, can do the dirty work. (2009 Update: GOOD CALL, after a slow start, he really showed what he can do)

OJ Mayo, 6?4 PG from USC

Sure, my attitude on him essentially changed 360 degrees after I learned he was super smart. Nonetheless, when you watch him in highlights, he just seems like he’s super smooth. Would love to have him, would have to trade up big time for him, but maybe he could be Baron’s replacement. (2009 Update: GOOD CALL)

Michael Beasley, 6?9 235 PF from Kansas State

He only had better numbers playing with lousier teammates in the same conference than Kevin Durant last year. He’s way out of reach for the Warriors, but he’d be insane as a Warrior. Of course, people have been mentioning Derrick Coleman with Beasley, so that’s a bit scary. (2009 Update: TOO EARLY TO TELL)

Robin Lopez, 7?0 255 C from Stanford

Not a fan of his brother’s, but Robin is suppose to be more athletic, and very good defender. Just poor offensively. He’s definitely within range for the Warriors, they’d probably be stretching to get him, but I wouldn’t mind if they traded down to get him. (2009 Update: TOO EARLY TO TELL)

Who, please, DO NOT PICK:

Anthony Randolph, 6?10 200 PF from LSU

When Tyrus Thomas came out a couple of years ago, I said another “Stromile Swift”. He’s from LSU, tall, thin, and athletic, and missing a ton of skills. Some people said that too, but most people said, “he’s gonna be great!” 2 years later, Stromile Swift ring a bell?

Anthony Randolph: Tall. Thin. Athletic. LSU. Missing a lot of skills. Like the other guys, bolting way early for the draft. Stromile Swift Part 3. Write it down. (2009 Update: WRONG or still too early to tell- I read Lamar Odom saying,”Hall of Fame” potential)

Joe Alexander, 6?8 230 SF from WV

a white Jason Richardson who can’t shoot (2009 Update: GOOD CALL but still early)

DeAndre Jordan, 7?0 250 C from Texas

The talent of a Jordan with the work ethic of (a dead) Andre the Giant. Laziness + Talent = Big Fat Ass.

Every other center in the draft, including Brook Lopez, Roy Hibbert, JaVale McGee, Kosta Koufos. Every one of them sounds like bench warmer to me. At least Robin could be a quality 20-25 MPG backup defensive center. (2009 Update: Brook is legit, looks like I am flat out wrong on him. JaVale looks ok, but he did play on a terrible team. Roy and Kosta had their moments, and Robin was out of the loop mainly. Overall, TOO EARLY TO TELL)

Tags: Basketball, draft, nba, ricky rubio, warriors

06.06.2009 Basketball 3 Comments

The NBA Draft is Here! (Almost)

Thursday, June 26th, 2008

I’m waiting for a conference call with my bosses at home, so I’m reading some more about the draft (I’m obsessed) in the meantime.

Reading the Great Draft Debate ‘08: Simmons and Ford make their lottery picks.

Since they’re doing in-depth analysis and comedic jabs, I’ll do my own of what they say (less of the funny, unfortunately)

Bill Simmons on Michael Beasley:

Beasley is a superb scorer and rebounder, but from what I’ve seen, he doesn’t give you anything else — he’s the kind of guy who puts up a 27-12 and gives up a 26-11 on the other end. He doesn’t seem to have any leadership qualities whatsoever. Do you honestly see him leading an NBA champion some day?

Think about Kobe in 1996 when he got drafted out of high school. We could have said the same back then (and maybe could say it now, ouch). Kobe took a while before he became the noted defender he is now as well. Mike Beasley IS 19 YEARS OLD.

(I am a Beasley fan, by the way, but not against Rose. I think they’ll both be fine)

One thing that stood out for me with Beasley is that he has a negative rep for being immature and a big joker, but when asked about it he said something like “Yeah, I’m a little immature sometimes, but what do you expect? I’m 19. I act like a normal 19 year old because that’s what I am”.

To me, that’s mature. Seriously.

About Kevin Love, I think he will prove to be fine athletically. He has a 35 inch vertical, he’ll get in better shape and lose more weight/get stronger, and he seems like someone who kicks ass, a bruiser with skills and brain. Carlos Boozer (seems amazing he was a 2nd rounder now, especially when he had a fabulous college career) isn’t the greatest athlete ever either, but people seem to think he’s good. Kevin Love, if he’s black, people don’t complain as much, honestly I believe that.

About Derrick Rose:

I loved Derrick Rose at first sight. He’s a great and selfless teammate; he’s a franchise point guard entering a league in which point guards have become inordinately valuable; he’s got a great name (never underestimate the value of a great name); he was the best player on an extremely successful college team; and in short, after watching him a few times, I would have bet my life on him making multiple All-Star appearances (barring injury).

I agree. I kind of feel like a good name, as retarded as that sounds (of course, Blink backs me up on this too) really makes a difference. Joe Smith, Bimbo Coles, didn’t work out so well for those guys did they?

Anyway, my perspective on the Warriors in the draft (8 hours away!)

I want the Warriors to pull a major trade, but it’s really not going to happen. Realistically. But I’m hoping. Kevin Love. OJ Mayo. Michael Beasley (it’d be like Webber/Nelson Part 2).

Here’s what will likely go down:

Kosta Koufos: heard he got really good workouts, but what bothers me most is that he’s not an aggressive player. Some snippets from Draft Express’ stats analysis of him:

Kosta Koufos and DeAndre Jordan all struggled to find the open man out of double teams.

(Free Throws Attempted Per 40 Mins) Kosta Koufos ranks last of all the centers, a surprising number for a player with his plethora of skills on the offensive end.

Jason Thompson: A lot of people are saying the Warriors like him a lot. He’s got good size, but went to a small school, and so a lot of people thinking he’s a reach at 14. If the Warriors like him a lot though, they WILL pick him, Don Nelson does not give a crap. He drafted Latrell Spreewell in 1992. I was 11 and listened to it on the radio. I remember Jim Barnett (I think) had to go to the bathroom or something and then when he came back everyone talked about Spree, with no one really knowing a whole lot on him.

2 years later. Spree was a superstar.

Anyway, I’d rather they reach and get Thompson because Nelson is a supreme talent evaluator, and if they get him, that means he knows something.

Brandon Rush:

Good player on both sides of the ball, can shoot, athletic. I’d be fine with this pick, he’d probably be better than people think of him now if he starts with the Warriors. Maybe I’m thinking Latrell again.

The truth is I trust any pick made by Don Nelson. (ignore Chris Mullin as GM, though Chris is getting better for sure)

If as Chad Ford says about the Grizzlies:

If that’s the case, why is he trying to give away the No. 5 to anyone who’ll take Brian Cardinal in a deal?

Marco + #1 for the #5 + $10M trade exception + Brian Cardinal. The Custodian comes home where it all started! Warriors get Kevin Love.

And on the Warriors:

The other guy I like for them is Chris Douglas-Roberts, a really quirky offensive player who will succeed only with a specific kind of coach: Someone who loves isolation matchups and pitting good one-on-one players against guys who have no chance of guarding them. You know, someone exactly like Don Nelson.

I like the Douglas-Roberts pick. Don’t mind it for the same reasons as with Brandon Rush.

Russell Westbrook: Just watch the video and let your jaw drop:

Tags: Basketball, derrick rose, don nelson, draft, kevin love, michael beasley, nba, warriors

26.06.2008 Basketball No Comments

The NBA Lottery is a Sham

Thursday, June 5th, 2008

3 years ago, I told John Tam (Lakers bandwagon fan) Andrew Bynum would a big piece of cr*p after seeing a pre-draft picture of himself posing in a mirror on his Myspace. It was his avatar!

But I was wrong.

It happens all the time, what do I really know about basketball. Even experts know little when it comes to the draft.

But I love the draft. It makes me excited. I’ve seen one in person, the 1994 Glenn Robinson (Big Dog) one in Indianapolis. I was 13, don’t remember so much from it, but the fans loved it when Damon Bailey got selected by the Pacers.

I’m not sure why people go crazy over the NFL Draft because 1) too f*cking long 2) most of these players will turn out to be nobodies.

In the NBA Draft, though, there’s only about 20 players you need to pay attention to, and you actually watch exciting highlights throughout the show. There’s nothing exciting about watching most football players’ highlights unless you’re watching a pancake-on-your-ass mix.

The draft itself, the lottery process, is a sham. I can say this because I, like all hardcore Warriors fans have experienced a ton of failure, both on the court (13 years of no playoffs), on the court (Latrell vs PJ), and in the lottery balls (13 years of no playoffs, 1 #1 pick in 1995, after that, never did well in the lottery or the actual draft).

Some history first. When Patrick Ewing was going to be the consensus #1 pick in 1985, the New York Knicks essentially tanked to make sure they’d have the worst record in basketball. There was no lottery back then, so they’d get Ewing.

After that embarrassment, the NBA instituted the lottery, which all NBA non-playoff teams took part in, to basically say, you’re not cheating to get the top pick.

This was fine until 1993.

In 1993, the Orlando Magic got the #1 pick for the second straight year (in 1992, they got Shaq). People complained because the crappiest teams weren’t getting the pick. (if I remember right, the Magic should have had the 10th pick or so)

Of course, I would argue that meant the lottery was doing exactly what it was supposed to do. Randomize the draft placement process so there was no way of a sure thing. Motivate teams to keep working hard because losing games wasn’t going to help.

After this, the NBA changed the lottery so it was much more slanted towards the crappy teams, much less position shifting.

This hasn’t stopped tanking. The Celtics have done it (at least) twice, once to go for Tim Duncan a decade ago, and again last year to get Greg Oden/Kevin Durant. They failed. They seem to be ok somehow now though.

And the way the balls are assigned is BS as well. It only goes on the previous year. Why is this bad? The Spurs were terrible for 1 year because David Robinson was injured. Not retired, just injured. They get the #1 pick and choose Tim Duncan. 4 championships. They were fantastic before that year, and fantastic afterwards. And they got the #1 pick.

The Heat won the Championship 2 years ago. They have Dwyane Wade. Shawn Marion. And now they’re going to add Michael Beasley/Derrick Rose.

How about the Warriors? The Warriors were terrible for 13 years IN A ROW

Look at the chart. Ever since 1995’s #1, the Warriors have never done better than their draft position. 11 straight times, nothing.

Can anyone dare to claim that the Warriors got justice in the draft, which is meant to help crappy teams build? Yes, the Warriors did plenty to screw themselves over, but the draft process helps teams who tank (I have wished for the Warriors to tank many years) as well as doesn’t distinguish between teams who have been bad for a while versus a team with just bad luck and got whooped.

My solution: assign the balls on the combined records of the last 3 seasons. Also return the lottery to it’s pre-Magic odds. More movement, more unpredictability, but at the same time “reward” those who have stunk it up for a while.

That said, along with my wrongful-Andrew Bynum defamation, here are my picks for this year:

My hopeful Warriors-to-be:

Kevin Love, 6′9 270 PF from UCLA
- Love’s name is suggestive conditioning if you were to believe in Malcolm Gladwell. I haven’t seen him play, but to me, he’s a bruiser with skills. Won’t be a great athlete, but will work and isn’t afraid to kick some a**. Good passer, can do the dirty work.
OJ Mayo, 6′4 PG from USC
- Sure, my attitude on him essentially changed 360 degrees after I learned he was super smart. Nonetheless, when you watch him in highlights, he just seems like he’s super smooth. Would love to have him, would have to trade up big time for him, but maybe he could be Baron’s replacement.
Michael Beasley, 6′9 235 PF from Kansas State
- He only had better numbers playing with lousier teammates in the same conference than Kevin Durant last year. He’s way out of reach for the Warriors, but he’d be insane as a Warrior. Of course, people have been mentioning Derrick Coleman with Beasley, so that’s a bit scary.
Robin Lopez, 7′0 255 C from Stanford
- Not a fan of his brother’s, but Robin is suppose to be more athletic, and very good defender. Just poor offensively. He’s definitely within range for the Warriors, they’d probably be stretching to get him, but I wouldn’t mind if they traded down to get him.

Who, please, DO NOT PICK:

Anthony Randolph, 6′10 200 PF from LSU
- When Tyrus Thomas came out a couple of years ago, I said another “Stromile Swift”. He’s from LSU, tall, thin, and athletic, and missing a ton of skills. Some people said that too, but most people said, “he’s gonna be great!” 2 years later, Stromile Swift ring a bell?
- Anthony Randolph: Tall. Thin. Athletic. LSU. Missing a lot of skills. Like the other guys, bolting way early for the draft. Stromile Swift Part 3. Write it down.
Joe Alexander, 6′8 230 SF from WV
- a white Jason Richardson who can’t shoot
DeAndre Jordan, 7′0 250 C from Texas
- The talent of a Jordan with the work ethic of (a dead) Andre the Giant. Laziness + Talent = Big Fat Ass.
Every other center in the draft, including Brook Lopez, Roy Hibbert, JaVale McGee, Kosta Koufos. Every one of them sounds like bench warmer to me. At least Robin could be a quality 20-25 MPG backup defensive center.

Check out some highlights of the top names in the draft this year:

Oh yeah, if you’re a big draft guy, check out:

www.nbadraft.net: click to find the articles, but their mock drafts always end up being supremely accurate right before the draft. I’m impressed every year
www.draftexpress.com: I love this site, I’ve been wondering if I should donate $10 just to help them out.