Dwight Howard and the Magic over the Lakers in 7 Games! [Not So Bold Predictions]

Tuesday, June 2nd, 2009

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Dwight Howard

Image by Keith Allison via Flickr

I’m no expert on anything, and like everyone I’m a genius in hindsight. But I’ll take any bet on the Finals this year (with Vegas odds) and go with the Magic. (Vegas Insider says “The Lakers come into the Finals as a -250 favorite to win the series (Bet $250 to win $100), while the Magic are +200 to win their first title (Bet $100 to win $200).â€

I’ll keep my reasoning simple: People always talk about this or that as they key component to championships. It used to be a big time center, but since there are so few so good centers and also because of rule changes in how you guard on the perimeter, some say you start your team with a point guard.

I read an article (maybe John Hollinger on ESPN?) a few months ago though that suggests, in actuality, what NBA Champions all of have in common is a superior post defender.

Let’s review the last twenty years of champions from http://www.nba.com/history/finals/champions.html

  • 1988-1989 Detroit Pistons:
    • Dennis Rodman was Defense Player of the Year twice with the Pistons, 8 times on the All-Defensive Team
  • 1990-1992 Chicago Bulls
    • Horace Grant was Second Team All-Defensive four times. Of course Jordan and Pippen were supreme defenders, and Bill Cartwright was a big key for them defensively at Center as well.
  • 1993-1994 Houston Rockets
    • Hakeem
  • 1995-1997 Chicago Bulls
    • Dennis Rodman
  • 1998 San Antonio Spurs
    • Tim Duncan, David Robinson
  • 1999-2001 Los Angeles Lakers
    • Shaq (remember, he is a 3 Time All Defensive Team guy)
  • 2002 San Antonio Spurs
    • Tim Duncan, David Robinson
  • 2003 Detroit Pistons
    • Ben Wallace
  • 2004 San Antonio Spurs
    • Tim Duncan
  • 2005 Miami Heat
    • Shaq and Alonzo Mourning
  • 2006 San Antonio Spurs
    • Tim Duncan
  • 2007 Boston Celtics
    • Kevin Garnett
  • 2008: Orlando Magic!!!!!!!

Every single one of these teams had a supreme post defender, at least an All-NBA second team post defender, with most of the teams having a first team All Defensive and even Defensive Player of the Year. In fact, only the Lakers and the Horace Grant Bulls did not feature a first team All Defensive post defender.

Introducing, then, Dwight Howard. 2008-2009 NBA Defensive Player of the Year.

The Lakers have Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum, but I’ve never heard them described as superior post defenders (certainly not All Defensive Team), even if their rebounding and shot blocking numbers look good.I read another article earlier this year (probably ESPN) that even Tex Winter, the Lakers’ assistant coach, believes the Lakers are overrated on defense- they can be good but are actually inconsistent.I heard an announcer mention this in the Nuggets series as well.

So, simple logic. Anyone out there want to take the bet?

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Warriors vs Kings

Tuesday, February 12th, 2008

The beauty of the Internet, and why living in Vietnam isn’t too bad at all: Downloading Saturday’s Warriors game less than 5 minutes after it finished from DavkaBT, and having it less than 5 hrs later.

I download as many Warriors games as I can (as long as they turned out to be good games) and so I actually see enough to see what’s going on with the team- I think I’ve watched 8 or so games so far this way, not too bad honestly all considering I’m in Hanoi.

Lots of basketball news recently, with Shaq -> Suns and Gasol -> Lakers, and even Webber going to the Warriors.

See my homage to the Warriors: (Baron, J-Rich, Reggie Miller):

Impressions from the game and other basketball notes:

- Monta Ellis is insane. Sometimes, you’ll hear analysts say X needs to add a 3 point shot or mid-range game to be unstoppable, but Monta is basically unstoppable now. His mid-range is ridiculous, he’s so quick, and he finishes….well, I’m not sure if he’s a better finisher than Baron, but he’s up there. No one can stop that mid-range, simply because you’d rather he take that than drive it in, and he’ll drive it in on you anyway. The biggest thing is that he can shoot off the dribble extremely well, a not like a slow dribble, but full speed I’m-about-to-go-by-you-but-wait-I-will-stop-on-a-dime-here-and-shoot-right-NOW and can get massive separation any time on it. Bob Fitzgerald (Warriors TV announcer) mentioned his overall game (defense, rebounding, passing) has been improving as well (I think he had 9 boards last night and had tons of hustle plays), and he’s shooting 52% from the floor. He doesn’t even need to take any 3’s (it’s good he doesn’t take them anymore, doesn’t need to), he’ll be just fine the way he is. I’m a bit worried how much money he’ll get next year as a free agent, I seriously think he’ll get somewhere in the Gilbert Arenas area, $12-13M a year. Gilbert was really similar as a player (could shoot, super quick, could pass but maybe more of a good passer as a combo guard rather than a pure point) when he left the Warriors; I don’t think anyone expected him to breakout and become Agent Zero at that point, but he was already damn good. Just imagine how many 22 year olds out there can do what Monta can do, and how he projects over the next 4-5 years. Here I was thinking about Monta’s And1 commercials he being the fastest guy in the NBA as “hold on there Monta”, but now….he could be. I haven’t seen Gilbert play in a long time, but when he was with the Warriors, he was freakin’ fast.

[youtube qKbaRMFR80A&rel=1 nolink]

- Baron, of course, is MVP.

- Favorite former Warrior Jason Richardson really started the year poorly, but he’s doing ok now. I’d say stop shooting so many 3’s, but if you’re hitting at 42%, I guess why not? I think J-Rich has hit his peak as a player though, not sure if he’ll ever be a guy who can get to line 6-7 times a game. Hai said something last week that just might be true, “Jason Richardson is a great fantasy player (someone who fills out the stat sheets) but he’s a loser.” As in the teams he plays for lose, unlike maybe a Tim Duncan, who has good but not fantastic stats, but he always wins. I love J-Rich, but deep down I know this is true.

- Stephen Jackson takes a lot of 3’s. In fact, all the Warriors do. But, like Latrell Sprewell back in the day, he doesn’t just sit there and take only 3’s. He does drive, he does shoot the midrange, overall he plays a balanced game even though the stats make you think he just jacks stuff up. (Yeah, sometimes he and Baron get a little crazy, but I think Baron has been less guilty about that this year) J-Rich, I think, was slowly becoming that guy who just shoots 3’s, but I haven’t seen him play as a Bobcat yet.

- Ron Artest- that is probably the one guy you would have to avoid at all costs in a boxing match. I think his dad was a boxer, or something, and that background is what helped him become so quick as a defender. But Artest is just so built (with quick hands and some insanity built-in), you know that guy is going to mess you up. Shaq is huge, but he’d probably just eat you. Dwight Howard same kind of thing, he just looks like he’d pick you up and break your back rather than fight you.

- Speaking of Dwight Howard, I saw the Magic-Warriors game, and he just looks like a giant. Among basketball players even. He’s not even 7ft or 300 pounds, but he just looks physically like he is so much bigger than everyone. And he’s such a great athlete, seeing him around the basket is ridiculous. He looks like he’s playing on a 9 foot rim.

- I think Shaq will do fine with the Suns. I’m excited to see him. I’m rooting for him.

- Mike went to yesterday’s game and said Chris Webber was awful. Kyle said the same on the first game with him: slow. I actually didn’t think it was that bad. Webber definitely can’t jump, he looks sluggish, but you can see some solid things already. I just hope that he lethargy is from being out-of-shape and not laziness. If so, it’s a good pickup. Just get into shape, get into the Warriors style of play, and contribute about 25 minutes a game, 9 pts with 6 boards and 2 assists/game.

- Andris Biedrins is….not improving? At least not like Monta. I suppose that’s an unfair. But I wonder why Andris isn’t stronger. He’s not Brandan Wright or anything, but I wonder why if he hasn’t improved is related to lack of strength. Definitely from last year to this, he seems the same. From his stats, he hasn’t seemed to improved much, rebounds are good, blocks are lower (could be a lot of reasons), everything else the same. Still a great finisher around the basket and has great hands but doesn’t show what he can do without a good pass or offensive rebound much. He’s still only 21 though, so not sure where he projects 3-4 years down the line. At least he’s improved on free throws a lot. Like with Monta, I think he could easily get $10M a year, and I don’t know how the Warriors do that when Baron will probably have to be locked up for the max.

- When he first joined the Warriors, and I couldn’t download games at the time to watch and know otherwise, I thought Matt Barnes was more of an energy guy who just shoots 3’s. But that’s not true at all, he’s really skilled, plays good defense, and really hustles. He definitely belongs in the league and can do a lot of things. He’s a great fit for the team, a good athlete, and pretty quick.

- Mike Dunleavy is kicking ass. I’ll quote myself from October: “Holy cow. I can only say in response, it’s preseason. I think he’s always had confidence issues, but I don’t think it’s ridiculous to say that at his best, he could average 15pts/6 rebounds/3 assists on 45% shooting, 35% on 3pt’ers, 75% from the line.”

  • He’s actually averaging, through 51 games, 17.5 pts/5.8 rebounds/3.4 assists on 47.6% Shooting, 38.9% on 3’s, 85% from the line. Pretty impressive. I remember a Pacers blog saying that he can be super inconsistent still and he’s had a bad run last 5 games.
  • Pacers have kind of fallen as a team, and they’re much better without Jermaine O’Neal it looks like, at least this version of O’Neal. I think they’ll get better as the season continues.

- I’d like to see the new budding All-Star Andrew Bynum play. Actually, how about play Shaq and the Suns in the playoffs. Drama!

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