My Fantasy Basketball Team

Sunday, October 26th, 2008

2008-10-26_12-04-28-762

Just completed my first fantasy basketball draft, put up $40 to play/lose with some friends.

Overall, I really like this team. One of my keys is that I focus a little more on rank than Yahoo’s O-Rank. O-Rank is the 3 year history from the past, so it’s more stable in terms of assessing a player. But I say look at last year’s rank heavily as well. For example, Mike Dunleavy was ranked 20th last year and most people take him in the 40’s. Assuming you don’t think he’s a fluke (I don’t), you can get a lot of value by getting him.

I got rode for picking David Lee 61st, but last year that’s exactly what he was ranked- plus he’s going to be a starter this year (switching between both positions) and playing heavy minutes. So, if he were to just perform like he did last year, I got exact value, but I expect him to do better, so I think I did fine.

Overall, I focused on value. I think I may end up weak in steals and blocks but feel good about everything else (we’ll have to see once the season starts). This team is going to be pretty efficient, no volume shooters or turnover machines on the team.

I had the 2nd pick overall, which is exactly what I wanted, it was that pattern I wanted because I felt I could get some good picks in the 18-22 range that others didn’t see. I picked a fairly young team, other than Manu, a team I felt has improvement, and as you’ll see if some of them at least meet last year’s numbers, I’m going to be doing well.

Here’s how I picked, with commentary:

10 teams, 10 rounds, 100 players:

  • #2 pick (ranked #2 last year), Amare Stoudemire: best center around, plays two positions, no real weaknesses. I expect his stats to continue to improve from last year
  • #19 pick (ranked #12 last year), Danny Granger: I thought this was a great value here. A lot of people think he will go up as well, but I’d be happy with last year’s results. I actually wanted a PF here, like Dwight Howard or Al Jefferson, but they went #8 and #13, really surprising me. Someone also took Nash at #7, which amazes me.
  • #22 pick (#29 last year), Jose Calderon: now that he’ll be playing 35 minutes per game, I think he’ll have no trouble earning his value, and at worst make up those 7 spots.
  • #39 (#24 last year), Rudy Gay: I considered my 4th/5th round picks steals, honestly.
  • #42 (#20 last year) Mike Dunleavy: I’ve always been a Dunleavy fan, not that I think he’s so good, just want him to succeed
  • #59 (#47 last year) Andris Biedrins: Andris is pretty consistent, I don’t expect him to go that much lower or higher, but I do foresee 11 pts, 11 rebounds, 1-1.5 blocks at 60% shooting and 60% from the line if he can finally get 30-32 minutes per game.
  • #61 (#61 last year), David Lee
  • #79 (#224 last year, projected as #71 this year by Yahoo!), Randy Foye: this was honestly my toughest pick. There were other good players in this range. Jason Terry was picked 95th, and I was considering him with this pick. Foye is a bit of a risk, but he’s definitely the starter this year, so he will have his chances. He certainly has the talent, and the ability to fill up a lot of stats.
  • #82 (#17 last year), Manu Ginobili: this is of course a risk, but from what I’ve read Manu will be back before Christmas, and he’s just worth it, to me. Another thing in getting Manu, was that I didn’t want to have to stress over who was going to pick him on the Free Agent list first. The rest of my team is actually fairly (I have no injury prone Yaos) durable (everyone, please don’t get injured!) so I’m taking the chance I can assume the risk of him on the bench.
  • #99 (#76 last year), Francisco Garcia: I didn’t know Garcia was injured until after the draft, but he could be back by mid-Nov, so not too big of a loss. He’s another guy I expect to improve and play starter minutes. He has a lot of skills, and can fill up the stat sheet. Obviously, there a lot of good players still out there, and I was thinking about releasing him, but just not sure who to get.

I think it was awesome that I came down (and got right value) with Rudy Gay, David Lee, and Calderon, as though were the guys I really favored. I got 6 of the top 29 players last year. If everyone plays exactly (not even improve) as they did last year (no crazy injuries of course, Manu comes back before Jan), I have no reason to think I will fin outside of the money (3rd place to get your money back), and I would be happy with that considering I’ve never played.

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26.10.2008 Basketball View Comments

Fantasy, Shmantasy Basketball

Wednesday, October 15th, 2008

Preparing for my first fantasy (on Yahoo! where else) basketball season. Hai invited me to join him and a bunch of people I probably don’t know but whom have created fancy team names like joseph sPalin and Kimbo Rice. (I’m guessing we have other Vietnamese people in this league) $20-40 per team (maybe I should ask Hai to finalize this, I wouldn’t want the stakes to suddenly go higher at the end of the year when I’ve lost to him), 10 teams in all, I think.

It’s complicated. Sure, I generally know who’s good in basketball and who isn’t, I can read all the advice columns I want on the Internet, read mock drafts, etc, but it’s all a ton of work. And nothing, really, is going to beat experience (in terms of multiple years of playing fantasy) and/or luck.

All the numbers are so complicated, it’s hard to see how it all fits, but I’m sure once the season starts I’ll easily see, oh, not good.

Maybe Yahoo should have a team advisor to let you know where your standing would be in each category based on last years stats as you draft, which is probably a fairly critical part of the season.

My feeling is that I will think I did ok and then realize I’m glaringly weak in 1 or 2 categories I’ve forgotten.

Anyway, with my draft 10 days away, here’s some “advice” on whom I like:

  • Jose Calderon, PG, Raptors: if you follow this site, you know I’m a big fan. I think he can put up Steve Nash numbers (same %’s, slightly less points, much better A:TO ratio)- after all who thought Steve Nash would put up Steve Nash numbers before he joined the Suns. Calderon can now hog all the minutes with TJ Ford gone, and he’s got another target in Jermaine O’Neal. I hope to pick him up 3rd round (4th round would be awesome)
  • Rudy Gay, SF, Grizzles: Maybe this year’s Danny Granger (would be happy with 3rd round for him)

I always remember this video of Rick Majerus talking about Rudy Gay:

 

  • David Lee, PF/C, Knicks: He already has great stats, but now that he’s going to start, expect him to go insane, I seriously don’t doubt he could do 15 pts and 12 rebounds/game, with 50%/80% from the floor and line, with added passing, and low turnovers. Incidentally, Lee is a fantastic basketball player, not just a fantasy guy- every article I read about his overall contribution, like his +- says he is just bad ass (I would go for him 6th round, mainly because he gets credit as a Center)
  • Kevin Durant, SF, Thunder: I have him slated for the end of the 4th round. He’s a bit of a risk because the swingmen position are always loaded. Here’s why I like him. He’s a beast. He’s young. He’s going to be a lot better this year than last. Look at the last half of his rookie year, and if he improves on those a little, you can be excited: 22 points per game, 48% from the floor, 6 FTA @ 88% from the line, 5 rebounds, 3 assists,1 steal, .75 blocks. The weaknesses are the 3 ball (he can shoot it, just needs to show restraint like he did in the second half) and turnovers (3 per game). But I think with Jeff Green improving, and Russell Westbrook coming in, he can make the jump.
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15.10.2008 Basketball View Comments

Jose Calderon to Raptors: It’s Him or Me – EmptyTheBench.com

Sunday, May 18th, 2008

 

We interrupt your normal NBA playoff programming for the following announcement: Toronto Raptors PG Jose Calderon has had it up here with coming off the bench. As a soon-to-be restricted free agent, he also wants a significant raise in salary. And as a little icing on his homemade cake of discontent, it sounds like he’s been daydreaming about choking T.J. Ford.

“I would like to start and that’s the most important thing,” Calderon is quoted as saying in yesterday’s edition of the Spanish daily sports newspaper El Mundo Deportivo, a sentiment he first shared with visitors to his website. “I’ve been two years with [Ford] but I don’t know if I could be another year because things would have to change.”

Jose Calderon to Raptors: It’s Him or Me – EmptyTheBench.com

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Come on, Warriors! Jose Calderon, a Warrior!

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18.05.2008 Basketball View Comments

Could Jose Calderon Be a Warrior?

Wednesday, April 16th, 2008

Jose Calderon is the next Steve Nash. Just watch below:

Actually, if you watched the mix above, it’s kind of boring. The mix is just Calderon shooting 3′s. But look at the stats:

8.3 assists, 2.9 rebounds, 1.04 steals, 11.3 points in 30.3 minutes a night. 52.3% shooting, 42.9% on 3′s, 90.8% on free throws.

Oh yeah, and 5.32 assist to turnover ratio.

Steve Nash: 11.2 assists, 3.5 rebounds, .66 steals, 17.1 points in 34.6 minutes. 50.4% shooting, 47% on 3′s, 90.6% on free throws. 3.04 assist to turnover ratio. I don’t know how well Calderon defends, but Nash is not supposed to be very good, and it doesn’t seem insane to think Calderon could become Nash. (Calderon is 26 right now, Nash was averaging 9 points and 5 assisters per game when he was 26.)

The Raptors have 2 really good point guards, Calderon and TJ Ford, but the way Ford’s been going (injury-prone), they’d probably rather trade Ford.

So why am I talking about Jose Calderon?

The Warriors this summer run a great risk of going back to 1995-1997 era. One name says it all: Vonteego Cummings. I thought he was going to be somebody.

I was wrong.

For 13 years, I thought the Warriors could be somebodies.

I was wrong.

Here’s the risk:

  • Baron Davis
  • Andris Biendrins
  • Monta Ellis
  • Mickael Pietrus
  • Matt Barnes
  • Kelenna Azuibuike

And coach Don Nelson.

All the above are the Warriors’ big potential free agents. The wrong moves in the next 4 months launch us into the Vonteego Cummings/Sam Jacobsen/Todd Fuller years again. It is seriously that easy from becoming a 48 win team to a 25 win team. Remember, this is the the same franchise that went from Chris Webber behind-his-back slam on Sir Charles to “the first pick in the 2005 NBA Draft is Joe Smith” in 1 year.

First, Don Nelson:

Don Nelson is just as likely to leave as he is stay. Actually, he is just as likely to trade Baron Davis to get back Speedy Claxton and 2 #1′s (if he convince Mullin) as he is of staying another 2 years.

Second, Baron Davis:

I hear a lot about how Baron is injury prone and becoming 30 next year. Actually, all that doesn’t bother me. Nash is 34, Kidd is 35, people are lasting longer nowadays. What bothers me is what happens when Don Nelson takes off and Baron’s in the middle of his max deal. Will Baron return to his lazy ways, or will he remain a leader, able to take the Warriors to 48/49 wins a year. That’s the risk.

Third, Andris Biedrins and Monta Ellis:

It’s easy to be down on Andris. He didn’t have a bad year by any means, but I don’t think he improved so much. As for Monta, it’s probably easy to be in love with him right now. He shot 53% from the field this year, averaging 20+! Yet, isn’t it odd that during his first year with Mike Montgomery coaching (go Bears!), he’d get put in for defense, and now that’s his weak spot. Reminds me of Pietrus a little bit; starting off as a big time defender, and then losing a bit of that. Monta’s definitely quick enough to lock down on people, he’s just gotta elevate his game. As for Andris, 10 pts and 10 rebounds on 63% shooting and only 27 minutes per game from a just-turned 22 year old? Amazing.

The others: Pietrus, Barnes, Azuibuike:

These three guys are pretty similar: athletic swingmen who can shoot the 3 and defend when motivated. Barnes didn’t play too well this year, but I’d still love for him to be a Warrior. Pietrus can be a real good bench player worth 25 minutes per game if he has his head on straight. Kaz has a real spot in the NBA, and I think he will get better.

So what should the Warriors do?

I’m not someone who’s saying if they don’t resign everyone, they suck. I don’t think they should get everyone back even if they could. At the same time, I’ve learned that you can’t win big (not even Championship level here, just saying getting to the 2nd round of the playoffs) without a superstar.

That must mean I want to keep Baron right?

Wrong. I love Baron. Not as much as J-Rich, but Baron’s my favorite Warrior now- but I’m sure everyone says that now.

At the same time, look at the risk of Don Nelson and Baron Davis. Plus, I wonder why Nelson benched Baron for the second half of the game in which the Warriors got eliminated from the playoffs. They’ve had good relations, but trusting either of them reminds me of Nelson and Chris Webber, and like I said, this whole things scares me like 1995.

So I gotta say, Nelson is going to let us down. When? Don’t know. But he will. And Baron’s too much of a risk in that scenario, especially for the kind of money he’s going to demand.

Let Baron go.

Keep Andris and Monta. In this scenario, I realize Warriors lack that superstar again. But I think Monta will be it. Sure, he’s got to improve his ball handling and D, but I think he can put up 25 points a game, he can be the next almost-Gilbert Arenas. Monta’s also 6 years younger. Andris, if he just improves a little, gets a little stronger (10+ pounds), adds a little bit more in his post game, defends his man a little bit better, you’re talking about a guy in 2-3 years could average 15 pts, 12 boards, 1.5 blocks on 55%+ shooting every year, a guy who’s a presence on both ends of the court. Those aren’t superstar numbers, but that’s an excellent center.

You also have to remember that the Hornets trading Baron for Speedy Claxton ended up being a steal, for the Hornets. They got Chris Paul. There is life after BD.

As for the other three swing guys, keep at least 1, try to keep at least 2 for no more than $3-4 Million a year.

So lock Monta and Andris both up, both will get $10-12 Million/a year, hopefully no more. Keep hoping Andris improves, Brandan Wright gains 20 pounds of muscle, Captain Jack keeps it together, and while the Warriors won’t reach 48 wins again, they will be fun and primed for the future. They’ll need a good backup pass-first point, which they can find….somewhere. Brevin Knight?

Unless.

Again, Jose Calderon?

This is where Jose Calderon comes in. The next Steve Nash. Imagine him in the Warriors offense. As crazy as this will sound to Warriors fans, maybe with improved Wright, Ellis, and Biedrins, Calderon really does become Steve Nash. The Warriors don’t have trouble scoring you know, as long as they have a creator. I think they can pick up the slack in points with Calderon and be more efficient at it. With Calderon and Ellis in the backcourt, Baron was a lot stronger but height wise, there’s no change.

Or if not Calderon, what about a guy like Kirk Hinrich of the Bulls? The Bulls are going to unload somebody this year, guaranteed. They have a bunch of good players, but no superstars to elevate them. This year they found out, not good enough.

Hinrich, as far as I know, is just a good player. He had a bad year, but he’s a good athlete who can shoot, defend, pass, and he’s tough. Think he could benefit from being a Warrior under Don Nelson?

Calderon’s the perfect fit though.

But what would it take to get either of these guys? The Warriors do have a lottery pick now, around the 15th pick in a very good draft. A lot of interesting big men this year. Maybe the Raptors would like one to team with Chris Bosh, or like the pick + Marco Bellineli, the young Rambo look-alike who will probably end up being a decent player. Add in a Pietrus or another swingman if the money doesn’t work. I don’t think anyone will take TMNT Harrington- he’s got close to $20 Million for two years left. Or if you want to go really crazy, sign and trade Baron for Calderon and junk, but I don’t think that’s realistic.

I guess the Raptors might be happy to deal TJ Ford instead, but I think of him as a slightly better Speedy, and I liked Speedy. But he’s not an all-star PG, while I think Calderon on the Warriors could be.

I was 13 when the Warriors turned bad. I’m now 27. If they self-destruct again, I will 40 when they get out of it, and Don Nelson may not be alive to rescue them once more.

Jose Calderon! Come on Warriors!

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