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I’m waiting for a conference call with my bosses at home, so I’m reading some more about the draft (I’m obsessed) in the meantime.

Reading the Great Draft Debate ‘08: Simmons and Ford make their lottery picks.

Since they’re doing in-depth analysis and comedic jabs, I’ll do my own of what they say (less of the funny, unfortunately)

Bill Simmons on Michael Beasley:

Beasley is a superb scorer and rebounder, but from what I’ve seen, he doesn’t give you anything else — he’s the kind of guy who puts up a 27-12 and gives up a 26-11 on the other end. He doesn’t seem to have any leadership qualities whatsoever. Do you honestly see him leading an NBA champion some day?

Think about Kobe in 1996 when he got drafted out of high school. We could have said the same back then (and maybe could say it now, ouch). Kobe took a while before he became the noted defender he is now as well. Mike Beasley IS 19 YEARS OLD.

(I am a Beasley fan, by the way, but not against Rose. I think they’ll both be fine)

One thing that stood out for me with Beasley is that he has a negative rep for being immature and a big joker, but when asked about it he said something like “Yeah, I’m a little immature sometimes, but what do you expect? I’m 19. I act like a normal 19 year old because that’s what I am”.

To me, that’s mature. Seriously.

About Kevin Love, I think he will prove to be fine athletically. He has a 35 inch vertical, he’ll get in better shape and lose more weight/get stronger, and he seems like someone who kicks ass, a bruiser with skills and brain. Carlos Boozer (seems amazing he was a 2nd rounder now, especially when he had a fabulous college career) isn’t the greatest athlete ever either, but people seem to think he’s good. Kevin Love, if he’s black, people don’t complain as much, honestly I believe that.

About Derrick Rose:

I loved Derrick Rose at first sight. He’s a great and selfless teammate; he’s a franchise point guard entering a league in which point guards have become inordinately valuable; he’s got a great name (never underestimate the value of a great name); he was the best player on an extremely successful college team; and in short, after watching him a few times, I would have bet my life on him making multiple All-Star appearances (barring injury).

I agree. I kind of feel like a good name, as retarded as that sounds (of course, Blink backs me up on this too) really makes a difference. Joe Smith, Bimbo Coles, didn’t work out so well for those guys did they?

Anyway, my perspective on the Warriors in the draft (8 hours away!)

I want the Warriors to pull a major trade, but it’s really not going to happen. Realistically. But I’m hoping. Kevin Love. OJ Mayo. Michael Beasley (it’d be like Webber/Nelson Part 2).

Here’s what will likely go down:

Kosta Koufos: heard he got really good workouts, but what bothers me most is that he’s not an aggressive player. Some snippets from Draft Express’ stats analysis of him:

• Kosta Koufos and DeAndre Jordan all struggled to find the open man out of double teams.
• (Free Throws Attempted Per 40 Mins) Kosta Koufos ranks last of all the centers, a surprising number for a player with his plethora of skills on the offensive end.

Jason Thompson: A lot of people are saying the Warriors like him a lot. He’s got good size, but went to a small school, and so a lot of people thinking he’s a reach at 14. If the Warriors like him a lot though, they WILL pick him, Don Nelson does not give a crap. He drafted Latrell Spreewell in 1992. I was 11 and listened to it on the radio. I remember Jim Barnett (I think) had to go to the bathroom or something and then when he came back everyone talked about Spree, with no one really knowing a whole lot on him.

2 years later. Spree was a superstar.

Anyway, I’d rather they reach and get Thompson because Nelson is a supreme talent evaluator, and if they get him, that means he knows something.

Brandon Rush:

Good player on both sides of the ball, can shoot, athletic. I’d be fine with this pick, he’d probably be better than people think of him now if he starts with the Warriors. Maybe I’m thinking Latrell again.

The truth is I trust any pick made by Don Nelson. (ignore Chris Mullin as GM, though Chris is getting better for sure)

If as Chad Ford says about the Grizzlies:

If that’s the case, why is he trying to give away the No. 5 to anyone who’ll take Brian Cardinal in a deal?

Marco + #1 for the #5 + $10M trade exception + Brian Cardinal. The Custodian comes home where it all started! Warriors get Kevin Love.

And on the Warriors:

The other guy I like for them is Chris Douglas-Roberts, a really quirky offensive player who will succeed only with a specific kind of coach: Someone who loves isolation matchups and pitting good one-on-one players against guys who have no chance of guarding them. You know, someone exactly like Don Nelson.

I like the Douglas-Roberts pick. Don’t mind it for the same reasons as with Brandon Rush.

Russell Westbrook: Just watch the video and let your jaw drop:

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3 years ago, I told John Tam (Lakers bandwagon fan) Andrew Bynum would a big piece of cr*p after seeing a pre-draft picture of himself posing in a mirror on his Myspace. It was his avatar!

But I was wrong.

It happens all the time, what do I really know about basketball. Even experts know little when it comes to the draft.

But I love the draft. It makes me excited. I’ve seen one in person, the 1994 Glenn Robinson (Big Dog) one in Indianapolis. I was 13, don’t remember so much from it, but the fans loved it when Damon Bailey got selected by the Pacers.

I’m not sure why people go crazy over the NFL Draft because 1) too f*cking long 2) most of these players will turn out to be nobodies.

In the NBA Draft, though, there’s only about 20 players you need to pay attention to, and you actually watch exciting highlights throughout the show. There’s nothing exciting about watching most football players’ highlights unless you’re watching a pancake-on-your-ass mix.

The draft itself, the lottery process, is a sham. I can say this because I, like all hardcore Warriors fans have experienced a ton of failure, both on the court (13 years of no playoffs), on the court (Latrell vs PJ), and in the lottery balls (13 years of no playoffs, 1 #1 pick in 1995, after that, never did well in the lottery or the actual draft).

Some history first. When Patrick Ewing was going to be the consensus #1 pick in 1985, the New York Knicks essentially tanked to make sure they’d have the worst record in basketball. There was no lottery back then, so they’d get Ewing.

After that embarrassment, the NBA instituted the lottery, which all NBA non-playoff teams took part in, to basically say, you’re not cheating to get the top pick.

This was fine until 1993.

In 1993, the Orlando Magic got the #1 pick for the second straight year (in 1992, they got Shaq). People complained because the crappiest teams weren’t getting the pick. (if I remember right, the Magic should have had the 10th pick or so)

Of course, I would argue that meant the lottery was doing exactly what it was supposed to do. Randomize the draft placement process so there was no way of a sure thing. Motivate teams to keep working hard because losing games wasn’t going to help.

After this, the NBA changed the lottery so it was much more slanted towards the crappy teams, much less position shifting.

This hasn’t stopped tanking. The Celtics have done it (at least) twice, once to go for Tim Duncan a decade ago, and again last year to get Greg Oden/Kevin Durant. They failed. They seem to be ok somehow now though.

And the way the balls are assigned is BS as well. It only goes on the previous year. Why is this bad? The Spurs were terrible for 1 year because David Robinson was injured. Not retired, just injured. They get the #1 pick and choose Tim Duncan. 4 championships. They were fantastic before that year, and fantastic afterwards. And they got the #1 pick.

The Heat won the Championship 2 years ago. They have Dwyane Wade. Shawn Marion. And now they’re going to add Michael Beasley/Derrick Rose.

How about the Warriors? The Warriors were terrible for 13 years IN A ROW

Look at the chart. Ever since 1995’s #1, the Warriors have never done better than their draft position. 11 straight times, nothing.

Can anyone dare to claim that the Warriors got justice in the draft, which is meant to help crappy teams build? Yes, the Warriors did plenty to screw themselves over, but the draft process helps teams who tank (I have wished for the Warriors to tank many years) as well as doesn’t distinguish between teams who have been bad for a while versus a team with just bad luck and got whooped.

My solution: assign the balls on the combined records of the last 3 seasons. Also return the lottery to it’s pre-Magic odds. More movement, more unpredictability, but at the same time “reward” those who have stunk it up for a while.

That said, along with my wrongful-Andrew Bynum defamation, here are my picks for this year:

My hopeful Warriors-to-be:

• Kevin Love, 6′9 270 PF from UCLA
  • Love’s name is suggestive conditioning if you were to believe in Malcolm Gladwell. I haven’t seen him play, but to me, he’s a bruiser with skills. Won’t be a great athlete, but will work and isn’t afraid to kick some a**. Good passer, can do the dirty work.
• OJ Mayo, 6′4 PG from USC
  • Sure, my attitude on him essentially changed 360 degrees after I learned he was super smart. Nonetheless, when you watch him in highlights, he just seems like he’s super smooth. Would love to have him, would have to trade up big time for him, but maybe he could be Baron’s replacement.
• Michael Beasley, 6′9 235 PF from Kansas State
  • He only had better numbers playing with lousier teammates in the same conference than Kevin Durant last year. He’s way out of reach for the Warriors, but he’d be insane as a Warrior. Of course, people have been mentioning Derrick Coleman with Beasley, so that’s a bit scary.
• Robin Lopez, 7′0 255 C from Stanford
  • Not a fan of his brother’s, but Robin is suppose to be more athletic, and very good defender. Just poor offensively. He’s definitely within range for the Warriors, they’d probably be stretching to get him, but I wouldn’t mind if they traded down to get him.

Who, please, DO NOT PICK:

• Anthony Randolph, 6′10 200 PF from LSU
  • When Tyrus Thomas came out a couple of years ago, I said another “Stromile Swift”. He’s from LSU, tall, thin, and athletic, and missing a ton of skills. Some people said that too, but most people said, “he’s gonna be great!” 2 years later, Stromile Swift ring a bell?
  • Anthony Randolph: Tall. Thin. Athletic. LSU. Missing a lot of skills. Like the other guys, bolting way early for the draft. Stromile Swift Part 3. Write it down.
• Joe Alexander, 6′8 230 SF from WV
  • a white Jason Richardson who can’t shoot
• DeAndre Jordan, 7′0 250 C from Texas
  • The talent of a Jordan with the work ethic of (a dead) Andre the Giant. Laziness + Talent = Big Fat Ass.
• Every other center in the draft, including Brook Lopez, Roy Hibbert, JaVale McGee, Kosta Koufos. Every one of them sounds like bench warmer to me. At least Robin could be a quality 20-25 MPG backup defensive center.

Check out some highlights of the top names in the draft this year:

Oh yeah, if you’re a big draft guy, check out:

• www.nbadraft.net: click to find the articles, but their mock drafts always end up being supremely accurate right before the draft. I’m impressed every year
• www.draftexpress.com: I love this site, I’ve been wondering if I should donate $10 just to help them out.

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Now that reporters can spend more time with Mayo, Floyd hopes the public will stop hearing the term punk alongside his name and finally see the inquisitive student who scored a 29 on his ACT, who became the first recruit in Floyd’s three-year tenure to test out of freshman English, who’s taking a weekly three-hour journalism seminar, and who talks about going into real estate and opening restaurants in Huntington and elsewhere after his playing days. “Kind of like what Magic Johnson’s doing,” explains Mayo.

Mayo says he used to agree with the old Charles Barkley saw that athletes shouldn’t be role models. “But now I understand,” Mayo says. “I’ll get introduced to kids, and they’re nervous because they just want to be like you. It teaches you to be a role model for the next generation. Even when your situation looks so messed up — your father’s in jail, your mom’s working two jobs just to make sure you’ve got food — go to school and make your grades so you can accomplish your dream. And let your mom know: I appreciate what you’ve done for me.”

Link: SI.com - Writers - A Fight Between Friends (cont.) - Tuesday November 13, 2007 10:32AM

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Wow, now I’m a huge OJ Mayo fan. I know nothing about the ACT, but apparently it could be a 94 percentile score. Holy cow! I remember Kobe Bryant had around a 1050 on his SAT’s, and thought that was reasonably impressive (for an athlete- and I don’t mean athletes are dumb, just that they have to divide their time). David Robinson got 1320 on his SAT’s back when (guessing around 1982) 1320 meant more than it did in 1997 (I got 1320 as well). I think it’s kind of interesting that although this article is a little bit oriented around new school/old school, urban/suburban themes and stereotypes, you don’t get to find out how good of a student Kevin Love (Love is white, Mayo is black) is.

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