3 years ago, I told John Tam (Lakers bandwagon fan) Andrew Bynum would a big piece of cr*p after seeing a pre-draft picture of himself posing in a mirror on his Myspace. It was his avatar!
But I was wrong.
It happens all the time, what do I really know about basketball. Even experts know little when it comes to the draft.
But I love the draft. It makes me excited. I’ve seen one in person, the 1994 Glenn Robinson (Big Dog) one in Indianapolis. I was 13, don’t remember so much from it, but the fans loved it when Damon Bailey got selected by the Pacers.
I’m not sure why people go crazy over the NFL Draft because 1) too f*cking long 2) most of these players will turn out to be nobodies.
In the NBA Draft, though, there’s only about 20 players you need to pay attention to, and you actually watch exciting highlights throughout the show. There’s nothing exciting about watching most football players’ highlights unless you’re watching a pancake-on-your-ass mix.
The draft itself, the lottery process, is a sham. I can say this because I, like all hardcore Warriors fans have experienced a ton of failure, both on the court (13 years of no playoffs), on the court (Latrell vs PJ), and in the lottery balls (13 years of no playoffs, 1 #1 pick in 1995, after that, never did well in the lottery or the actual draft).
Some history first. When Patrick Ewing was going to be the consensus #1 pick in 1985, the New York Knicks essentially tanked to make sure they’d have the worst record in basketball. There was no lottery back then, so they’d get Ewing.
After that embarrassment, the NBA instituted the lottery, which all NBA non-playoff teams took part in, to basically say, you’re not cheating to get the top pick.
This was fine until 1993.
In 1993, the Orlando Magic got the #1 pick for the second straight year (in 1992, they got Shaq). People complained because the crappiest teams weren’t getting the pick. (if I remember right, the Magic should have had the 10th pick or so)
Of course, I would argue that meant the lottery was doing exactly what it was supposed to do. Randomize the draft placement process so there was no way of a sure thing. Motivate teams to keep working hard because losing games wasn’t going to help.
After this, the NBA changed the lottery so it was much more slanted towards the crappy teams, much less position shifting.
This hasn’t stopped tanking. The Celtics have done it (at least) twice, once to go for Tim Duncan a decade ago, and again last year to get Greg Oden/Kevin Durant. They failed. They seem to be ok somehow now though.
And the way the balls are assigned is BS as well. It only goes on the previous year. Why is this bad? The Spurs were terrible for 1 year because David Robinson was injured. Not retired, just injured. They get the #1 pick and choose Tim Duncan. 4 championships. They were fantastic before that year, and fantastic afterwards. And they got the #1 pick.
The Heat won the Championship 2 years ago. They have Dwyane Wade. Shawn Marion. And now they’re going to add Michael Beasley/Derrick Rose.
How about the Warriors? The Warriors were terrible for 13 years IN A ROW
Look at the chart. Ever since 1995′s #1, the Warriors have never done better than their draft position. 11 straight times, nothing.
Can anyone dare to claim that the Warriors got justice in the draft, which is meant to help crappy teams build? Yes, the Warriors did plenty to screw themselves over, but the draft process helps teams who tank (I have wished for the Warriors to tank many years) as well as doesn’t distinguish between teams who have been bad for a while versus a team with just bad luck and got whooped.
My solution: assign the balls on the combined records of the last 3 seasons. Also return the lottery to it’s pre-Magic odds. More movement, more unpredictability, but at the same time “reward” those who have stunk it up for a while.
That said, along with my wrongful-Andrew Bynum defamation, here are my picks for this year:
My hopeful Warriors-to-be:
- Kevin Love, 6’9 270 PF from UCLA
- Love’s name is suggestive conditioning if you were to believe in Malcolm Gladwell. I haven’t seen him play, but to me, he’s a bruiser with skills. Won’t be a great athlete, but will work and isn’t afraid to kick some a**. Good passer, can do the dirty work.
- OJ Mayo, 6’4 PG from USC
- Sure, my attitude on him essentially changed 360 degrees after I learned he was super smart. Nonetheless, when you watch him in highlights, he just seems like he’s super smooth. Would love to have him, would have to trade up big time for him, but maybe he could be Baron’s replacement.
- Michael Beasley, 6’9 235 PF from Kansas State
- He only had better numbers playing with lousier teammates in the same conference than Kevin Durant last year. He’s way out of reach for the Warriors, but he’d be insane as a Warrior. Of course, people have been mentioning Derrick Coleman with Beasley, so that’s a bit scary.
- Robin Lopez, 7’0 255 C from Stanford
- Not a fan of his brother’s, but Robin is suppose to be more athletic, and very good defender. Just poor offensively. He’s definitely within range for the Warriors, they’d probably be stretching to get him, but I wouldn’t mind if they traded down to get him.
Who, please, DO NOT PICK:
- Anthony Randolph, 6’10 200 PF from LSU
- When Tyrus Thomas came out a couple of years ago, I said another “Stromile Swift”. He’s from LSU, tall, thin, and athletic, and missing a ton of skills. Some people said that too, but most people said, “he’s gonna be great!” 2 years later, Stromile Swift ring a bell?
- Anthony Randolph: Tall. Thin. Athletic. LSU. Missing a lot of skills. Like the other guys, bolting way early for the draft. Stromile Swift Part 3. Write it down.
- Joe Alexander, 6’8 230 SF from WV
- a white Jason Richardson who can’t shoot
- DeAndre Jordan, 7’0 250 C from Texas
- The talent of a Jordan with the work ethic of (a dead) Andre the Giant. Laziness + Talent = Big Fat Ass.
- Every other center in the draft, including Brook Lopez, Roy Hibbert, JaVale McGee, Kosta Koufos. Every one of them sounds like bench warmer to me. At least Robin could be a quality 20-25 MPG backup defensive center.
Check out some highlights of the top names in the draft this year:
Oh yeah, if you’re a big draft guy, check out:
- www.nbadraft.net: click to find the articles, but their mock drafts always end up being supremely accurate right before the draft. I’m impressed every year
- www.draftexpress.com: I love this site, I’ve been wondering if I should donate $10 just to help them out.
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